Wednesday, April 9, 2008

The sensex furore.

Last few days must have been highly distressing for short time investors.I can easily understand their grievances eventhough i dont invest in the market nor my family does .The sensex has once again showed its volatile nature ,driving them nuts.It is vacillating around 15000pts after crossing swashbuckling 21K. Unsurprisingly ,people have lost their money holding many reasons for this acute debacle.But share market is something which is not controlled by an individual,but by emotions and perceptions prevailing in the market.
There are many reasons for plummeting liquidity(money) in the market.I think, I have been getting too much involved in the market sentiments ,hence would love to elucidate them.
1)The abstinence of FIIs(foreign institutional investors). Few months back ,finance minister incited up a controversy by making historical decision of putting cap on money influx from unregisterd FIIs.These unregisterd FIIS enter in indian market through 'p notes(participatory notes).'The decision was admirable but it led to unrest in the market fearing expected pull back of money by both registered and unregistered FIIs .It resulted in absolute mayhem next day,marketplunged by more than 1400pts,though marget resorted to correction in next few days and earned a new high of 21K unexpectedly.So I guess,P notes factor is not the sole reason for the present downfall.
2)Housing loan /subprime effect.America in deep recession is not unknown to everybody.Morguage companies and banks are incurring huge losses as the property rate in U.S depriciated.UBS (union bank of swicherland)registered a loss of $1900 bilion for this quarter,their chairmain just stepped down yesterday.The Recession is effecting Indian market great deal as influx of money is curtailed.I think quite a valid reason to hold this responsible for steep fall.
3)Miscillinious reasons.(economic, political ,social).surging price of basic commodities(inflation),the global oil price rise,the defeat of congress Govt. in gujarat,HP election coupled with fear of early election (due to obstinacy of Left regarding Nuke deal)has attributed to unrest in the market resulting downfall.
but frankly speaking, it is easier to give the reasons and very difficult to project the behaviour of market next day .This is what stock indices are notorously known for..he he...
Sensex today at 15,791(+203).nice show!.
but I really dont know ,is this just an end of beginning or simply beginning of an end! infact ,nobody knows.


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